Time series changes in pseudo-R² values regarding maximum glomerular diameter and the Oxford MEST-C score in patients with IgA nephropathy: A long-term follow-up study

There is no effectual pathological factor to predict the long-term renal prognosis of IgA nephropathy. Glomerular hypertrophy plays a crucial role in kidney disease outcomes in both experimental models and humans. This study aimed to 1) confirm the long-term prognostic significance of a maximal glomerular diameter (Max GD) ≥ 242.3 μm, 2) test a renal prognosis prediction model adding Max GD ≥ 242.3 μm to the Oxford classification (MEST-C), and 3) examine the time series changes in the long-term renal prognosis of patients with IgA nephropathy. The study included 43 patients diagnosed with IgA nephropathy from 1993 to 1998 at Kameda General Hospital. Renal prognosis with the endpoint of a 50% reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or the development of end-stage renal disease requiring dialysis was examined using logistic regression analysis, Cox regression analysis, and the Kaplan-Meier method. Pathological evaluation was performed using MEST-C and Max GD, and the validity of the prediction model was evaluated. Patients with Max GD ≥ 242.3 μm had significantly poor renal prognosis with multivariate Cox analysis (P = 0.0293). The results of the Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that kidney survival rates in the high-Max GD group were significantly lower than those in the low-Max GD group (log rank, P = 0.0043), which was confirmed in propensity score-matched models (log rank, P = 0.0426). Adding Max GD ≥ 242.3 μm to MEST-C improved diagnostic power of the renal prognosis prediction model by renal pathology tissue examination (R²: 3.3 to 14.5%, AICc: 71.8 to 68.0, C statistic: 0.657 to 0.772). We confirm that glomerular hypertrophy is useful as a long-term renal prognostic factor.