Median values and 95% confidence interval of the posterior distributions of the inferred parameters using the bdmm BEAST2 package.
The parameters , and are the reproduction numbers for the non-MSM hosts during the first, second and last temporal intervals respectively. The parameter is the reproduction number for the MSM hosts epidemic. γ1 and γ2 are the end of infectiousness rates of non-MSM and MSM hosts respectively. t2 corresponds to the date of the emergence of the MSM hosts epidemic.