Comparison of Predicted and Actual Pace I.

The comparison is made for the 2:45 marathoner depicted in Figure 8. Given the runner's splits up to a sampling point (one of 25 km, 30 km, 35 km or 40 km), the diagram shows the median prediction (central horizontal line) and the boundary points of a 90% prediction interval (outer horizontal lines) for all subsequent split points. Also shown are the runner's actual results (open square dots) and the projections assuming Constant Pace (round black dots). All results are presented as net overall pace (minutes/mile), as in Fig. 8.