posted on 2021-08-18, 17:25authored byJessica E. Rothman, David Eidelberg, Samantha L. Rothman, Theodore R. Holford, Douglas L. Rothman
The reported CFRcrude(t) curve is plotted in black. Even though the reported CFRcrude(t) curve rises by more than 10-fold, it is well matched throughout the duration by the simulated CFRcrude(t) curve (blue) using the CFRcrudetimecorrected value of 5.0% determined from the entire time course. Therefore, even early in the outbreak, when CFRcrude(t) was 10-fold lower than on May 7, 2020 (the last day used) the time correction method would have accurately predicted the true CFRcrude(t) value.