Observed mosquito infection rate (MLE) vs. predicted MLE from the WNV model using the entire data set.

Background colors correspond to a classification of model predictions based on MLE of 5 [22]. Green corresponds to a correct prediction of high WNV MLE (27 records, 12.4%), blue corresponds to a correct prediction of low WNV MLE (157 records, 72.0%). Yellow corresponds to an error where the model predicts MLE to be high, but it is not (14 records, 6.4%), whereas orange corresponds to an error where the model predicts MLE to be low, but MLE was high (20 records, 9.2%). Future models should aim to improve the model’s sensitivity (0.57), although the specificity (0.92) is also of concern. Note that some predictions can be quite accurate, and still result in misclassification if they are near the classification threshold.