HIV incidence ratios by country, 2014–2048.

(a) immediacy of impact (five years). (b) magnitude of impact (15 years). HIV incidence in VMMC scale-up scenarios in which circumcisions are only provided to the five-year age group indicated, divided by HIV incidence in a scenario in which the baseline male circumcision prevalence by age is maintained. 1 = the HIV incidence in the baseline scenario in each year.