Sensitivity analysis demonstrating the impact on maternal life expectancy of rates of linkage to postnatal HIV care.
The vertical axis represents maternal life expectancy, in years from delivery. The horizontal axis depicts the probability of linkage to postnatal HIV care for women who receive the PMTCT regimens shown. This probability of linkage to care is varied from 79% (the base case value) to 85%. In the base case, maternal life expectancy following the sdNVP and Option B regimens is lower than if no antenatal ARVs were received for PMTCT (triangles). This occurs as a result of modeled negative impacts of sdNVP-associated resistance (sdNVP regimen) and ART interruption (Option B regimen). When the probability of linkage to care following Option B is ≥81.8%, as indicated by the open arrow (2.8% more than if no antenatal ARVs are received), the negative impact of ART interruption is overcome. Similarly, when the probability of linkage to care following sdNVP is ≥82.8%, as indicated by the solid arrow (3.8% more than if no ARVs are received), the negative impact of sdNVP-associated resistance is overcome.