Fig_5.tif (332.99 kB)
Revised acute phase estimates.
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posted on 2015-03-17, 04:36 authored by Steve E. Bellan, Jonathan Dushoff, Alison P. Galvani, Lauren Ancel MeyersOur estimates (black) of the excess hazard-months attributable to the acute phase (EHMacute) based on (A) viral load trajectories (Fig. 2) and (B) our fit of a couples transmission model to the Rakai retrospective cohort. We compare these estimates with previous Rakai-based estimates that did not adjust for these biases (gray). These include (C) Wawer et al.’s adjusted and (D) unadjusted Poisson regressions [17], (E) Hollingsworth et al.’s variable hazard survival analysis [18], and (F) Powers et al.’s estimates that used a Bayesian framework to combine estimates from (E) and a mathematical modeling fit to an epidemic curve [19].
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incident serodiscordant couplesload trajectoriesSimulated Cohorts BackgroundThe infectivitycouples transmission modelserodiscordant heterosexual couplesRakai datanetwork structure.ConclusionsPrevious EHMacute estimatescouple dissolutionestimate infectivity trajectoriesAcute Phase InfectivityRakai retrospective cohortretrospective cohort exclusion criteriaRakai retrospective cohort data rangehivstudy terminationretrospective cohort study design.Our resultsphase infectivity
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