Calibration of the deterministic model and the stochastic individual-based model.

Model calibration to HIV prevalence among (A) women and (B) men by age. Error bars show 95% confidence intervals for data and 95% credible intervals for the IBM model (imperceptible because narrow) and ODE model (posterior) estimates. C: Model calibration to HIV incidence in the ACDSS and comparison to the UNAIDS’ Spectrum model [40]. D: Model validation against HIV prevalence in KwaZulu-Natal among adults aged 15–24 and 15–49 from the four South African national household surveys [7]. Abbreviations: ODE, ordinary differential equation; IBM, individual based model; ACDSS, Africa Centre Demographic Surveillance Site; CrI, credible interval.