10.1371/journal.pntd.0004957
Giovanni Lo Iacono
Giovanni
Lo Iacono
Andrew A. Cunningham
Andrew
A. Cunningham
Elisabeth Fichet-Calvet
Elisabeth
Fichet-Calvet
Robert F. Garry
Robert
F. Garry
Donald S. Grant
Donald
S. Grant
Melissa Leach
Melissa
Leach
Lina M. Moses
Lina
M. Moses
Gordon Nichols
Gordon
Nichols
John S. Schieffelin
John
S. Schieffelin
Jeffrey G. Shaffer
Jeffrey
G. Shaffer
Colleen T. Webb
Colleen
T. Webb
James L. N. Wood
James
L. N. Wood
A Unified Framework for the Infection Dynamics of Zoonotic Spillover and Spread
Public Library of Science
2016
knowledge gaps
human-to-human infections
Lassa case study
Poisson processes
West Africa
spillover events
control measures
host reservoir
plan intervention
self-limiting chains
pathogen dynamics
Infection Dynamics
haemorrhagic disease
zoonotic disease emergence
Zoonotic Spillover
health communities
agent-based models
SARS
human-to-human vs animal transmission
Lassa fever
zoonotic diseases
infection prevalence
Unified Framework
2016-09-02 17:41:28
Dataset
https://plos.figshare.com/articles/dataset/A_Unified_Framework_for_the_Infection_Dynamics_of_Zoonotic_Spillover_and_Spread/3805860
<div><p>A considerable amount of disease is transmitted from animals to humans and many of these zoonoses are neglected tropical diseases. As outbreaks of SARS, avian influenza and Ebola have demonstrated, however, zoonotic diseases are serious threats to global public health and are not just problems confined to remote regions. There are two fundamental, and poorly studied, stages of zoonotic disease emergence: ‘spillover’, <i>i.e.</i> transmission of pathogens from animals to humans, and ‘stuttering transmission’, <i>i.e.</i> when limited human-to-human infections occur, leading to self-limiting chains of transmission. We developed a transparent, theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Poisson processes with memory of past human infections, that unifies these stages. Once we have quantified pathogen dynamics in the reservoir, with some knowledge of the mechanism of contact, the approach provides a tool to estimate the likelihood of spillover events. Comparisons with independent agent-based models demonstrates the ability of the framework to correctly estimate the relative contributions of human-to-human vs animal transmission. As an illustrative example, we applied our model to Lassa fever, a rodent-borne, viral haemorrhagic disease common in West Africa, for which data on human outbreaks were available. The approach developed here is general and applicable to a range of zoonoses. This kind of methodology is of crucial importance for the scientific, medical and public health communities working at the interface between animal and human diseases to assess the risk associated with the disease and to plan intervention and appropriate control measures. The Lassa case study revealed important knowledge gaps, and opportunities, arising from limited knowledge of the temporal patterns in reporting, abundance of and infection prevalence in, the host reservoir.</p></div>